December 10, 2007

Packers Playoff Picture

I have hinted at it in past posts, but today I will come right out and say it, the Packers are going to Super Bowl XLII February 3rd in Arizona. Here is how they are going to do it.

Yesterday the Packers beat the Raiders 38-7, moving to 11-2 on the season and clinching the NFC North. Winning the NFC North guarantees the Packers a slot in the playoffs, and at worst a 4th seed.

However, what the Packers are really shooting for is the second seed in the NFC. The second seed in the NFC would give them a first round bye, which they desperately need to recover from injuries.

With the current NFC standings, the Packers are 1 game ahead of the Seahawks(Seattle would probably win the tie breaker) and 2 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the race for the second seed. The Packers have a weak schedule coming up, all of the teams they face are out of the playoffs. So the Packers can either win out, or lose 1 game in the next 3. If they play like they did on Sunday, that should not be a problem.

Assuming they get the second seed, the Packers will face the first opponent in Lambeau. That will be the best seeded team still alive, and the way things look right now, that should be either Seattle or the Giants, with a possibility of Minnesota or Tampa Bay. Of those teams, only Seattle would pose a real threat. The Packers beat both the Giants and Minnesota solidly, and Tampa Bay doesn't really scare anyone.

That leaves the rematch in Dallas. And I think they win this time.

I think the Packers are healing, and with a soft schedule should be able to rest some players. Johnny Jolly is not on the DL, so there is a chance he can come back, especially if the Packers make it deep into the playoffs. The Packers have a former Pro Bowl tight end called Bubba Franks who is looking to come back, and once he does, they can throw some 2 tight end sets into the mix, confusing the Dallas defense even more, and giving Brett Favre a bit more protection.

Move important than injuries, however, is experience. I think playing Dallas, in Dallas, was probably a good thing. The Packers have not faced a lot of high quality teams since the road trip to the AFC, and I think it showed in the Dallas game. I think the Packers were nervous, confused, and a little overwhelmed. I think having a big, pressure game did a lot for the team, and I think they are a better team because of it. It's kind of like your first time in the sack: the second time around you are not quite as amped up.

With the Packers getting people off injury, I think they match up against Dallas very well. With the big game experience, I think they beat Dallas and go to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII February 3rd.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007 12:54:14 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Woops! ;-) A small mistake regarding the playoff picture for the Packers. They are actually 2 games up on the Seahawks (9-4) and 3 games on the Bucs (8-5).

Simplest scenario: If the Packers beat the Rams and the Panthers beat the Seahawks, the Packers are guaranteed a first round bye with 2 weeks left in the season. (But still with plenty to play for for that 1st seed - Dallas *could* lose 2 of their last 3)

I agree with everything else you wrote - I think the Packers will beat Dallas on Jan 20 (regardless of venue).
Dawg
Wednesday, December 12, 2007 12:58:54 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
My prediction:
1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. New Orleans (have to win out and TB has to lose out, but hey, that's my prediction!)
5. NY Giants
6. Minnesota

Wild card: Minnesota beats Seattle; NY Giants beat New Orleans (or TB)
Divisional: Dallas beats Minnesota; Packers beat NY Giants
Conference: Packers beat Dallas
SB: Packers get crushed by 19-0 New England (Sorry, I have to be real here - I'm NOT a Patriots fan!)
Dawg
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