In my last post I started talking about the playoffs, and how the Packers will earn a first round bye. Here is how that works:

Unless the Packers lose out to go 10-6 and the Lions win out, we have won the NFC North already. The Lions and Vikings are 6-6, but we have the head to head tie breaker against the Vikings because we beat them twice. The Lions winning out might give them the tie-breaker, but there is still a lot of scenarios there. Basically if the Packers win and the Lions lose again, the Packers win the devision.

That pits the Packers against the Buccaneers and the Seahawks. The Giants are out because they are in the same conference as Dallas, who has that wrapped up. (not mathematically, but close enough.)

EDIT: As dawg pointed out in the comments, this is wrong. It is win/lose/tie in the conference, not division. See my updated Packers Playoffs post where I go into more detail.

Here it gets interesting. After record, the tiebreaker is head to head. The Packers have not played the Bucs or the Hawks. The next tie breaker is win/lose/tie in the division. The Packers are actually at a slight disadvantage there. They are .750 while Seattle is .800 and Tampa Bay is perfect at 1.000. There are a few other permutations, but it basically means the Packers have 1 game to give, with no help.

If Tampa Bay and Seattle win out, the Packers have 1 game to give.

If they both lose a game, the Packers have 2 games to give.

This is for a first round bye in the playoffs.

Put another way, if the Packers go 3 of 4 for the rest of the season, they are guaranteed a first round bye. If they go 2 of 4 there is a high probability of a bye.

The playoff picture is pretty clear for the Packers, and it can only get clearer. All information was derived from the NFL tie breaker rules.