The Packers beat the Lions on Sunday with a score of 34-13. Neither team really had anything to play for, but the Packers were trying to bounce back from a terrible loss to the Bears the week before, and bounce back they did.

The Packers sat 9 starters for the game, and it was still never even close. The Lions defense could not slow the Packers, with Green Bay scoring touchdowns on their first three posessions, after which Brett Favre sat out the rest of the game and let Craig Nall take over.

Nall started very shaky, which is to be expected considering he was just signed a few weeks ago. After breaking some of the rust off, he finished pretty well going 7-15 for 88 yards and a touchdown.

The Dallas Cowboys took the opposite route on Sunday, playing most of their starters. However they went against a Washington team with a lot to play for, most importantly a guaranteed playoff spot with a win. The Cowboys result was also the opposite of the Packers, Dallas got blown out 27-6 and were never really in the game.

Of course, this changes nothing for the playoffs, the Cowboys still have the number one seed and home field through out and the Packers have the second seed. I also wouldn't read too much into either game. Dallas mentally took the week off and got their hats handed to them, much like the Packers did last week. It is tempting to think, "Oh, if only the Packers had won last week, they would be number 1." That is not true because if home field was on the line, Dallas would have played a completely different game.

Also, week one of the playoffs is out, and I have updated my Packers playoff schedule post to reflect that.

Edit: As Marie in the comments points out, the Packers will play Saturday, January 12th at 3:30 CT. I updated my post to reflect the new information.

Well, I guess the Packers still had a stinker left in them because they sure stunk up Soldier field today.

There really isn't too much to say about the Packers loss to the Bears. The Packers were terrible in all phases of football today, and the Bears executed. It would be easy to blame this game on the punting unit, and while that was a big part of the loss, most of the trouble started with the defense.

The defense just flat out did not show up today. The Bears ranked last in the NFL in rush yards, and they ran all over the Packers defense today. The Packers gave up 139 rushing yards when the Bears were averaging 78 yards a game on the ground. It's not like the Packers didn't know the Bears were going to run, it December and there were wind gusts up to 40 mph! And Kyle Orton was the starting quarterback. The Bears rushed 13 times on the opening drive. 13 rushes in a row, and the Packers could hardly stop them, and the Bears held the ball for 10 minutes. On the opening drive. That really set the tone for the game, and it wasn't good for the Packers.

The offensive line got beat, the defensive line got beat, and the Packers rolled over. This with the first seed in the NFC on the line. I like Coach McCarthy a lot, but most of the performance has to be on him. His team did not look good, and that is his job.

Maybe there is a silver lining in this loss though. Maybe the Packers really are not an outdoor team. Maybe they are built for speed and not power. Maybe playing in the Dome in January is better than playing in Lambeau.

Hey, I know I'm stretching, but 35-7 sucks.

In a game with playoff implications for the Packers, the Cowboys beat the Panthers today 20-13. This game was a lot closer than I expected, probably closer than pretty much everyone expected. Not many people expected the Panthers to take the Cowboys to the wire, which they did. This game was not over until the Cowboys got a first down with less than 2 to play. The game being this close makes the Packers vs Bears game on Sunday even more important. Here are some quick hits from the game:

1. Terrel Owens did not play the second half with a high ankle sprain. In the second half, the Cowboys scored 3 points. That is not co-incidence. I do not want to win do to injuries, but against the Cowboys I will take what I can get.

2. As Dave and Don allude to in the comments, the Cowboys do not look like the second best team in the NFL right now. The Lions took them to the last seconds, the Cowboys lost to the Eagles at home, and then had a hard time with the Panthers in Carolina. The Cowboys do not feel like a team on the rise.

3. The Packers, on the other hand, do feel like they are hitting their stride. After losing to the Cowboys the Packers have beat their opponents 71-21.

4. The Bears game is now huge. Chris Collinsworth said after the game that a Packers win on Sunday would force the Cowboys to play their starters next week. This Cowboys team really wants to rest and get healthy, a Packers win would prevent that.

5. The NFL has got to do something about subjective referee calls. All of these calls about helmet to helmet, or unprotected receiver, or pass interference, or was the receiver going to the ground when he was hit are getting silly. It takes the game out of the players hands and into the zerbras hands.

The Packers are in a strange state this year. No one expected them to be as good as they are, but now they find themselves 12-2 with a first round bye in the playoffs, and challenging for the number one seed in the NFC. I constantly hear people say the Packers are overrated, but the Packers are tied for the second best record in the NFL!

So how good are the Packers? Are they one of the top 4 teams in the NFL, or are they pretenders? I think they are one of the top 4 teams in the NFL. Right now I would rank the NFL as: Patriots, Packers, Colts, Cowboys. No one can argue with the Patriots, the Colts have a few injuries, and the Cowboys have been slipping lately. Dallas barely beat Detroit in the final seconds and then lost to the Eagles at home.

So why the lack of respect? I think it boils down to a few things.

The first thing is the Patriots. I think every team is getting compared to the Patriots right now. If the Packers beat the Raiders 38-7, people say the Patriots would have done it 52-0. I don't think it is a fair comparison, or a reason to knock the Packers. The Patriots are the best team I have ever seen, although my memory does not go back that far. The first football game I remember is the '85 Super Bowl and I hear those were some pretty good teams, but I don't remember the play, just going to the game.

Another reason people knock the Packers is because they don't make the highlight reel that often so they are not in the spotlight, and that was evident by the pro-bowl selection yesterday.  The Packers don't have a Ray Lewis, or Chad Johnson. Nick Barnett is 5x the linebacker Ray Lewis is, but he doesn't flex after every play so he doesn't get on Sportcenter every night, and doesn't get voted to the pro-bowl. Thats fine, in fact, that is great. I love that Barnett isn't running around the field after every play anymore, he has grown up a bit. I love that Driver doesn't pull cell phones out of the goal posts, or jump into Salvation Army kettles, he just racks up the YAC. But, it is one reason that people don't think the Packers are as good as they really are, kinda like the Browns.

Locally, people have been giving them a hard time for the way they win games. If you look at the St. Louis game, the Packers won 33-14. In that game, they never trailed, even with 2 first half turnovers. That is a convincing win, but fans had a little bit of a bad taste in their mouths after the game. Part of that is 2 turnovers and Stephen Jackson rushing for 103 yards in the first half, and part is just high expectations. The Packers might not always win pretty, but 33-14 is pretty comfortable.

The final reason for the lack of respect is the Cowboys game. The Packers really got embarrassed on national(kinda) TV. They were really never in that game, and the defense couldn't stop the Cowboys at all. I think just as the Packers were gaining some national recognition they dropped an egg to Dallas, and people kind of dismissed them.

I am not saying the lack of respect is a bad thing at all. It doesn't really bother me, I was just more interested in WHY people seemed to be down on the 12-2 Packers.

The 12-2 Packers go down to Soldier Field this coming Sunday to play the 5-9 Chicago Bears. Game time is noon and the weather looks pretty normal for late December in Chicago, cloudy and a high of 27.

I was pretty worried about this game all season, and even more so as the game approached. The Packers are clearly the better team this year, but I could think of so many reasons why the Bears would win. I was worried about them playing the spoiler for the Packers great season. I was worried about the rivalry, and how the team that is down always plays up to the cross border foe. I kept thinking of the New Years Eve day game last year, and how we beat them when they were playoff bound.

I had all of those things in my mind, but then I watched the Bears vs Vikings game last night and I was reminded that the Bears suck. Kyle Orton looked horrible. He missed so many open receivers. Kyle Orton looked lost in his helmet, his little bearded face peering out, looking for an open receiver.

The Bears had 3 turn overs in the first half, they they only scored 13 points. They had 3 turn overs, yet they only led by a touchdown going into the locker room. The Bears are so bad they make Robert Ferguson look like an NFL receiver as he caught a career high 71 yard reception. (Fittingly for this cast off, he was stopped 1 yard short of the goal line. Way to step up Ferguson.)

Peterson punched the ball in from the one, and I turned the TV off, I knew the Bears were done.

But this isn't supposed to be about how bad the Bears are, its supposed to be about how the Packers will beat the Bears. Think of it as a 5 step plan:

1. Don't turn the ball over. The Bears did show that they can still create turnovers. The Packers (Brett Favre) need to not turn the ball over.
2. Pressure the quarterback. I'm not sure who it will be, but I think Kyle Orton is still slated to start. Pressure him and he will make mistakes.
3. Stop the run. This is a continuation of step 2. The Bears passing can't beat our secondary, we can focus on the run.
4. Protect Favre. They will blitz, and we need to protect the quarterback. The Bears have good corners too, we just need to give Favre and Driver time.
5. Show up on time. Really, if the Packers show up to the stadium at halftime, they might have a hard time winning.

Prediction: Packers win 17-3

Marie from the comments asks "Do you have any insight or knowledgeable guesses as to which day and time the Packers would play their first playoff game at Lambeau?"

Yes and no. The first Packers playoff game will be the weekend of January 12th, 2008. It will be either January 12th, or January 13th. That much is for sure. (Tickets right now are $299 - $1000 and going up. If you want to go, get em now. I will not be going ^^)

I believe the #2 seed will play on Saturday the 12th, and the #1 seed will play on Sunday.

As to what time the 2007 NFC Divisional playoff is, or what time the 2007 AFC Divisional playoff is, I don't know. Dave mentions in the comments that the NFL will not announce the times until the teams are decided. That is probably accurate, especially in light of this years flex scheduling scheme the NFL is using.

The interesting thing is FOX has the NFC Divisional game, and CBS has the AFC Divisional game that weekend. I would think who goes first would be in the TV contract, but just guessing.

If I find out more, or exact times, I will update this post.

The Green Bay Packers secured at least the second seed in the NFC Playoffs by beating the St. Louis Rams with a score of 33-14 on Sunday and by the Seahawks loosing to the Panthers 13-10.

With the win, the Packers are guaranteed a first round by in the 2007 NFL playoffs, and the first game they play will be at home in Lambeau field. That first round by is huge. It gives them a week off to rest and try and get fully healthy (or as healthy as they can with the players not on IR.) Not only that, but the first game they play will be against an opponent who is coming of a demanding playoff game. Securing this game goes a long way to ensuring a rematch with Dallas.

Notice I did not say IN Dallas. That is because the Cowboys lost to the Eagles on Sunday 6-10. With that loss the Packers still have a shot at the #1 seed in the NFC, and a rematch against Dallas at home. A few days ago I dismissed any real idea of Dallas losing the top seed, but after the Cowboys looked shaky two weeks ago against the Lions, and then dropping one at home to the Eagles, that top seed looks suspect. The Packers would have to win out and have the Cowboys lose one more to have that happen, but now that is a real possibility.

For that reason, I am a temporary Redskins fan. They are the team that has the biggest chance of knocking the Cowboys out of the top spot. The Redskins are not in the playoffs now, but they are one game behind the Vikings for the last spot, and they play the Vikings next week. If the Redskins win that game they would be playing Dallas in the final week of the season for a playoff spot. They would be playing in Washington, and against a division rival. That is a winnable game for the Redskins, and if nothing else it keeps the Dallas starters on the field for the whole game.

This is an incredible season for the Packers, and if they can beat the Bears next week in Chicago, it will be even sweeter.

UPDATE With the Packers win over the Seahawks on Saturday, they advance to the NFC Championship game. They will play Sunday, January 20th at 5:30pm on FOX.
They will play either the Cowboys or Giants, I will update after that game.

I have gone over the Packers Playoffs scenario a few times, so what happens when they make it? When do the Packers play in the playoffs?

According to CBS, the 2007 NFL playoffs wildcard games are January 5th-6th, the Divisional playoffs are the next week January 12th - 13th, and the Conference Championship is January 20th. Super Bowl XLII is February 3rd in Arizona.

So look for the Packers to play in the playoffs Saturday January 12th and then the big rematch at Dallas on January 20th.

Exact times and dates are not yet available from the NFL yet, but I will keep looking.

Update: The first round playoff games are set, and the schedule is available on the NFL site.

For the first week in the NFC it is Washington at Seattle 3:30 on Saturday January 5th and then the Giants at Tampa Bay at noon on Sunday January 6th.

The Packers opponent is not determined yet, but it will be the highest seed of either Seattle, Giants, Washington, or Tampa Bay, with the teams seeded in that order.

Edit: It was pointed out by Marie in the comments that the Packers will play Saturday, January 12th at 3:30 CT. I updated this post to reflect the new information.

I also confirmed at the FOX Sports site.

Not good news for Packer fans, according to NFL.com, Terry Glenn practiced today for the first time since the regular season started.

Packers fans may remember Glenn from the 2003 season. He was very good, but injury prone. He is not expected to play this Sunday, but is expected to be able to suit up for the playoffs.

The Cowboys offense is powerfull enough, they don't need another weapon.

Dawg noted in the comments that I made a mistake when reading the tie breaking procedures. If the Seahawks and Packers finish with the same record, the tie breaker will be conference record, not division record as I wrote in my Packers Playoff post.

I made the mistake because I still mix up division and conference. The Packers are in the NFC North division and the NFC conference. The rules state that "If the tied clubs are from different divisions" then the second tie breaker is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference". I mistook division for conference and picked the wrong tie-breaker.

I also need to clarify what I meant by "the Packers are 1 game ahead of the Seahawks (Seattle would probably win the tie breaker)". The Packers are 11-2 and the Seahawks are 10-4, so the Packers are 2 games up in win-lose, but effectively only 1 game up because right now the tie-breaker would go to the Seahawks. Ironically, Seattle would win either tie-breaker, division or conference record.

It is also important to note that any talk of a tie breaker assumes that the Seahawks win out, and the Packers drop two of three. The Packers could drop all 3 and Seattle could lose a game, but what is the point of that? If the Packers lose out the season, they will not go far in the playoffs, and I will eat my hat.

So given that the Packers would have to drop 2 of 3 to force a tie breaker, and all of their games are in the conference, they would necessarily lose the tie breaker to Seattle.

With that help from Dawg, the Packers playoffs picture is even clearer.

In order to get the second seed in the playoffs, they need to (Remember, the Packers losing 3 of 3 is not in the relm of possibility!):

1. Win two of 3 or
2. Have Seattle lose a game.

Very simple. The second seed in the NFC playoffs is pretty much a lock for the Packers.

If you live in the alternate land of Seattle, for the Seahawks to get the second seed in the playoffs, they would need to win out, and have Green Bay lose 2 of 3.

Finally, Dawg mentioned that the Packers have "plenty to play for for that 1st seed - Dallas *could* lose 2 of their last 3". That is the only place I would disagree, and only slightly. I'm not sure how much of an advantage Lambeau in January is for this Packers team. They are a fast, spread team, not so much a pound it in the middle team (unless they are playing the 31st ranked rushing defense like they did against Oakland.) I think getting healthy and rotating players is more important than holding on for the first seed. Which I don't see Dallas losing anyway, they have a soft schedule as well.

Thanks Dawg for the comments, and the clarification.

The Packers announced today that Johnny Jolly will be placed on injured reserve with a shoulder, ending his season.

That is a big blow for the Packers. Jolly was a surprise on the defensive line, but he was really contributing a lot. I'm sure the Packers were hoping he could make it back for the playoffs.

I'm not sure why he was on the roster for Sunday, and then on IR today, Tuesday. The doctors must have seen something different today.

Green Bay heads to St. Louis to play the Rams Sunday November 16th. The game time is noon and the game will be broadcast on FOX.

There really is not a whole lot to say about this game. I mentioned yesterday that the Packers playoff scenario lets them lose 1 game, but it will not be this one.

Some people might say that the Rams are resurgent, they might talk about how they won 3 of their last 5 games, and about how Stephen Jackson finally is healthy and running well. People also said giving the Packers 10 points over the Raiders was too much.

Reality also paints a different picture. I think the only runner to rush for over 100 yards on the Packers this season was Adrian Peterson, and a lot of those yards came in garbage time during the Packers first win over the Vikings, so big name runners don't worry me. And true, the Rams are 3 of 5, but those 3 wins were over New Orleans, San Fransisco, and Atlanta. Not exactly NFL power houses.

I don't think the Rams can score on the Packers, and I don't think their defense can slow down the offense too much.

Which brings up one a very interesting point. The Packers finishing the season with a soft schedule is a huge advantage over the rest of the NFC. The casual finish allows the Packers rest up and get healthy, and it allows Coach McCarthy to try a few different strategies.

I think we will see Coach McCarthy treat the rest of the season almost like the pre-season. I think the starters will play the first half, or until the game is comfortably in hand. Then I think he will rotate in players to get a look at them. Last week against the Raiders, he had 10 defensive backs on the roster, and I think most of them played. I don't think anyone is competing for the starting job, but I do think they are competing for the 7-9 positions. I think the same thing is happening with the offensive line.

This is huge for a few reasons. First, the Packers are a young team, and it develops the young players. It gives them a chance to play in legitimate games, and builds for the future, while driving towards the playoffs. Second it keeps the backups sharp and ready to step in if anyone gets hurt. The Dallas game excluded, the backups have played pretty well this year. Finally, it gives everyone something to play for going into the playoffs.

Coach McCarthy doesn't want the Packers to coast into the playoffs, he wants them to go in on the upswing. If the starters know they will get a breather if the Packers are up by a lot at the half, they are going to play with more intensity and drive, and resist the temptation to phone a game in late in the season. Furthermore, if they know a young guy is waiting on the sidelines to go in, they might play just a little harder.

This strategy has the double bonus of keeping the team interested and playing hard, and lets the Packers avoid laying a couple of eggs at the end of the season and dropping the second seed.

The road to the Super Bowl starts now, and with teams rolling over like the Raiders did on Sunday, I expect the Packers to add a few wrinkles to the game plan to help them prepare for it.

I have hinted at it in past posts, but today I will come right out and say it, the Packers are going to Super Bowl XLII February 3rd in Arizona. Here is how they are going to do it.

Yesterday the Packers beat the Raiders 38-7, moving to 11-2 on the season and clinching the NFC North. Winning the NFC North guarantees the Packers a slot in the playoffs, and at worst a 4th seed.

However, what the Packers are really shooting for is the second seed in the NFC. The second seed in the NFC would give them a first round bye, which they desperately need to recover from injuries.

With the current NFC standings, the Packers are 1 game ahead of the Seahawks(Seattle would probably win the tie breaker) and 2 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the race for the second seed. The Packers have a weak schedule coming up, all of the teams they face are out of the playoffs. So the Packers can either win out, or lose 1 game in the next 3. If they play like they did on Sunday, that should not be a problem.

Assuming they get the second seed, the Packers will face the first opponent in Lambeau. That will be the best seeded team still alive, and the way things look right now, that should be either Seattle or the Giants, with a possibility of Minnesota or Tampa Bay. Of those teams, only Seattle would pose a real threat. The Packers beat both the Giants and Minnesota solidly, and Tampa Bay doesn't really scare anyone.

That leaves the rematch in Dallas. And I think they win this time.

I think the Packers are healing, and with a soft schedule should be able to rest some players. Johnny Jolly is not on the DL, so there is a chance he can come back, especially if the Packers make it deep into the playoffs. The Packers have a former Pro Bowl tight end called Bubba Franks who is looking to come back, and once he does, they can throw some 2 tight end sets into the mix, confusing the Dallas defense even more, and giving Brett Favre a bit more protection.

Move important than injuries, however, is experience. I think playing Dallas, in Dallas, was probably a good thing. The Packers have not faced a lot of high quality teams since the road trip to the AFC, and I think it showed in the Dallas game. I think the Packers were nervous, confused, and a little overwhelmed. I think having a big, pressure game did a lot for the team, and I think they are a better team because of it. It's kind of like your first time in the sack: the second time around you are not quite as amped up.

With the Packers getting people off injury, I think they match up against Dallas very well. With the big game experience, I think they beat Dallas and go to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII February 3rd.

Green Bay plays Oakland Sunday 12/0/07 at noon in Lambeau.

This is a big game for Green Bay, but it isn't.

It isn't a big game like last week where the teams are evenly matched, Oakland isn't a very good team. It is a big game because the Packers need to bounce back, get some of their "mojo" back, so to speak.

It isn't a big game in that they are almost guaranteed a playoff spot, and Oakland is playing for nothing but pride. It is a big game as far as injuries go. The Packers want to play who they can, but they don't want anyone else to get hurt, and don't want to prolong injuries with players coming back too soon.

This is a huge game simply for the fact it is in Lambeau, and with the playoffs coming up, the Packers want to re-establish Lambeau as a place to be feared. It will also be the first game under 32 degrees for this Packers team, and it will be telling to see how they handle it.

This is a big game strictly for momentum. Teams always want to be on the upswing going into the playoffs. It might be a touch to early for that, but starting a winning streak is a lot better than going on a 2 game skid.

This is a big game for Coach McCarthy to prove he can get his team up off the mat.

Of course, I think they will win. Oakland is on the uptake, but they are not that good. Remember, I have been saying all season that the Packers keep punching, they are not quitters, and I don't think they will quit this week.

Packers vs Raiders Prediction: Green Bay wins over Oakland 34-17.

In my last post I started talking about the playoffs, and how the Packers will earn a first round bye. Here is how that works:

Unless the Packers lose out to go 10-6 and the Lions win out, we have won the NFC North already. The Lions and Vikings are 6-6, but we have the head to head tie breaker against the Vikings because we beat them twice. The Lions winning out might give them the tie-breaker, but there is still a lot of scenarios there. Basically if the Packers win and the Lions lose again, the Packers win the devision.

That pits the Packers against the Buccaneers and the Seahawks. The Giants are out because they are in the same conference as Dallas, who has that wrapped up. (not mathematically, but close enough.)

EDIT: As dawg pointed out in the comments, this is wrong. It is win/lose/tie in the conference, not division. See my updated Packers Playoffs post where I go into more detail.

Here it gets interesting. After record, the tiebreaker is head to head. The Packers have not played the Bucs or the Hawks. The next tie breaker is win/lose/tie in the division. The Packers are actually at a slight disadvantage there. They are .750 while Seattle is .800 and Tampa Bay is perfect at 1.000. There are a few other permutations, but it basically means the Packers have 1 game to give, with no help.

If Tampa Bay and Seattle win out, the Packers have 1 game to give.

If they both lose a game, the Packers have 2 games to give.

This is for a first round bye in the playoffs.

Put another way, if the Packers go 3 of 4 for the rest of the season, they are guaranteed a first round bye. If they go 2 of 4 there is a high probability of a bye.

The playoff picture is pretty clear for the Packers, and it can only get clearer. All information was derived from the NFL tie breaker rules.

The big game is over, and now it is time to peer into the looking glass a bit and see what the rest of the season has in store.

The Packers are 10-2, and in my revised predictions I had the Packers going 13-3. I still feel that way. I think there is a loss lurking in the schedule some where.

The Packers have the Raiders, Rams, Bears and Lions left. At first glance there doesn't seem to be a loss in there, but its lurking. Oakland are winners of 2 straight, The Rams are 3-4 since they had a bye week and got Stephen Jackson back, the Bears are resurgent, playing tough the last 3 games, and the Lions, well, they fell apart. I hate to say it, but it looks like the Pack will drop another to the Bears when they go to Solider Field on Dec 23rd. Packers vs Bears on Christmas Eve eve, yikes.

As I said in the Dallas wrapup, the Packers are still a very good team, and it is time to look at the playoffs. Assuming a 13-3 finish, the Packers will get the second seed in the NFC. That means a first round bye, and a second round game at home. In the weak NFC, that is a good place to be. It is very hard to tell who will still be alive in the second round of the playoffs, but based on the current standings, I would guess the Seahawks will be the highest ranked team still in the playoffs. Seattle in Green Bay in January? I saw that movie before in 2003, and I like how it ends: 33-27 Packers on an Al Harris interception returned for a touchdown.

It looks like the Packers will be going back to Dallas in January. How healthy the Packers will be remains to be seen.

EDIT: I want to touch on the Oakland game briefly. This is a so called "trap" game in that it comes against a bad team after a big loss. I am a huge fan of Coach McCarthy and I think it is his job to get the team ready, especially with 10 days. I think the Oakland game is a big game, giving the Packers a chance to say they are for real, again, at home.

EDIT 2: I wrote the Bears won 2 in a row. I thought they were on the way to beat the Giants. Looks like they gave up 2 TD in the last 7 minutes. What a kick in the gut.