August 28, 2008

Very Happy

I didn't see a lot of tonights Packers vs. Titans game, but from what I saw and the recaps I am very happy with the way the Packers finished the pre-season.

The first team offense ran 1 series which consisted of 1 play, Rodgers to Jennings for a 68 yard touchdown. Really that could have been all the good news and I would be happy. Getting those two clicking on offense will be huge. Once Rodgers starts rolling, with Jennings, Jones, Driver, and Martin, the Packers will not be lacking passing weapons.

The first team defense ran 1 series and did ok, holding the Titans to 3 points. I didn't see this series, so I can't really talk to it too much.

The second team defense did pretty well, holding the Titans first team offense to 20 points. Not bad for second team against first team.

The second team offense did not look as good, but the Titans have a pretty good defense themselves. The O line really needs to shore up, they are in trouble, and it showed once the second team got on the field. The second team O line is almost the third team because of injuries.

I really like the way McCarthy coached this pre-season. His goal wasn't to win, but to find out who his team was, and get his starters to where they needed to be. He made a game plan and stuck with it. He said the first team offense was getting 1 series, and that is what they got, even though it meant Ryan Grant and Jackson did not touch the ball.

Finally, I really like the fact that the "push-out" rule is no longer in effect, even though it meant the game did not go into overtime. Basically it is now up to the receiver to get both feet in bounds, even if the defense pushes him out. It is a good rule because it makes sense, it really is the receivers job to catch the ball in bounds no matter what, but more importantly it takes a judgment call away from the refs. The less the refs have to judge player intent, or what would have happened in a certain play, the better. The NFL is no place for "coulda, shoulda, woulda"

Posted By: Chris Burkhardt

To meet the 75 man roster limit, Justin Harrell was placed on reserve/physically unable to perform and DeShawn Wynn was cut.

Wynn showed flashes last year, but never convinced the staff he could play through injuries. Right now the Packers have a lot of depth at running back, so this is not to big of a shot.

Harrell on the other had, was a first round draft choice from last year and the Packers were really looking for him to contribute this year. In fact, according to this story, Harrell may never play for the Packers again. "I'm just trying to get myself ready for when they release me," Harrell admitted, "and like I said, just be ready to go."

I think the loss of players to the interior defensive line may be the underplayed story of this pre-season. Last year the Packers were able to rotate players in to keep everyone fresh. With the loss of free agent
Corey Williams, Harrell basically going on the DL, and Johnny Jolly coming off shoulder injury and a drug arrest, the interior line looks suspect.

Without the D-line to put pressure on the quarterback, the Packers will have to rely on linebacker and d-back blitzes, which put more pressure on those positions coverage.

Posted By: Chris Burkhardt

Last year I was not so hot on my pre-season Packers Prediction. Let's hope my 2008 Packers Prediction is a little closer to the mark.

Prediction: 12-4

Here is how:

Sept. 8th, Minnesota Vikings: Lose
Just like the contests between these two teams last year was all about the match ups, this first meeting this year will be all about match ups as well, specifically the Vikings run defense against the Packers running game. Ryan Grant held out, is slightly injured, and the Vikings have a stellar run defense. The Vikings will force the Packers to pass, and as much as I like Aaron Rodgers, this will be his first game, and he will be less than perfect. Adrian Peterson and the Vikings offense will be on the field too much for the Packers defense to contain, and they will score enough to beat the Packers.
0-1

Sept. 14th, at Detroit Lions: Win
The Lions are kind of the opposite of the Vikings: they have a good pass offense and a poor running game. Their run defense is not close to the Vikings, and the Packers have a better pass defense than run defense. The Packers defense should give the offense enough opportunities to score. That and the Lions are just really not that good.
1-1

Sept. 21st, Dallas Cowboys: Lose
I hate to say it, but the Packers lose this one. We finally get the Cowboys at Lambeau, finally get some chance at revenge, and the Packers are going to lose this one. The Cowboys are too good, and the Packers will not have come together enough at this point in the season.
1-2

Sept. 28th, at Tampa Bay: Win
Tampa Bay has a great defense, but not much of an offense. They were in the Brett Favre derby, I wonder how that makes their starter Jeff Garcia feel?
2-2

Oct. 5th, Atlanta Falcons: Win
The Falcons were not really that good even with Vick, and now with no quarterback they are rebuilding.
3-2

Oct. 12th, at Seattle: Win
So far, this is the best team I have the Packers winning against, and with the Packers on the road too. The Packers have just had Seattle's number for the past few years, and they sure showed it in the playoffs last year. Seattle might win this on paper, but on the field the Packers get it.
4-2

Oct. 19th, Indianapolis Colts: Lose
Man, another Lambeau loss. There is no way around it in my mind. The Colts may be slightly on the down turn, and by now in the season the Packers should be gelling, but they cannot match the Colts, the Colts just have too much offense.
4-3

Oct. 26th, Bye Week

The Packers get a break, I'll take one as well. I will finish up tomorrow.

Nov. 2nd, at Tennessee Titans: Win
This will be a tough game. The Titans were 10-6 last year, in a very tough division with the Jaguars and Colts. However, the Packers will be coming off a bye, and I think by now the Packers running game should really be coming together. The second half of the season is when the running game really pays off.
5-3

Nov. 9th, at Minnesota Vikings: Win
I predicted the Packers to lose the first meeting, at Lambeau, why would the Packers win now, in the Dome? Because the Packers running game will be strong, and Aaron Rodgers should have a pretty good command of the team and the system bye now. On the flip side, Adrian Peterson and Tarvaris Jackson are both young and will probably start to fade as the season goes on. That and the Packers have pretty much handled the Vikings in the dome the past what, 5 years?
6-3

Nov 16th, Chicago Bears: Win
The Bears look pretty bad this year. Seriously, The Bears look REALLY bad this year. The Bears looked pretty bad last year, but they still beat the Packers twice. What changed? Our quarterback. Favre looked bad against, wait, he looked REALLY bad against the Bears last year, and I forgot how much I hate loosing to The Bears.
7-3

Nov. 24th, at New Orleans: Win
This is a tough call. On the road, on turf, against a pretty good New Orleans team. The question is, which team do we face, the '06 team or the '07 team? I'm guessing the '07 team, but it is kind of a coin flip.
8-3

Nov. 30th, Carolina Panthers: Win
The Panthers used to be a very good team. 2 years ago this match up would scare me. Now, I think the Panthers are on the way out. Delhomme is too old, DeAngelo Williams I don't think is stepping up to a starting running back, and while they have a rookie to share time with Williams, rookies don't usually do too much in the NFL. The Panthers D is good, but I think the Packers offense outmatches the Panthers offense.
9-3

Dec. 7th, Houston Texans: Win
If the Panthers are on the wane, I think the Texans are on the rise. There is only one problem, they don't have a running back. They overpaid for a running back with too many miles on him. As much as I respect Ahman Green and appreciate what he did for the Packers, he was old and the Texans paid too much money. In 2 years this match up will scare me.
10-3

Dec 14th, at Jacksonville Jaguars: Lose
Last year the Jaguars were 11-5 in the same tough division the Titans were in. I don't have the Packers loosing since the bye week, and Jaguars look to be a very physical team. I don't think the Packers can handle them yet.
10-4

Dec. 22, at Chicago Bears: Win
Still don't think the Bears are very good, even in Chicago.
11-4

Dec. 28th, Detroit Lions: Win
I fully expect the Lions to have packed it in by now. The Lions players are probably thinking about cleaning out their locker and where they are going on winter break.
12-4

12-4 is a pretty outrageous prediction, especially with a quarterback who has never started a game. Without looking at the schedule I would have thought 10 wins to be a stretch and a gift, but this looks like a pretty soft schedule. Playing Chicago and Minnesota two times each helps.

I am really looking for comments here. Which games am I wrong on? What will the Packers record be?

Posted By: Chris Burkhardt

According to JSonline, Ryan Grant and the Packers agreed to a 4 year deal. See the article for details.

This is great news, and sounds like a good deal for all involved. I will have move in the morning.

Update:

The reason I like this contract so much is because it is very incentive laden. These days running backs are, for the most part, very fragile players. They run at a high level for what seems to be 2-3 years, then break down. Add that to the fact that Grant has already had a serious injury that caused him to miss a year, and I think the Packers are right to be concerned about his longevity.

That said, if Grant runs like he did at the end of the season for the next 4 years, he deserves to be paid a lot, and that is exactly what this contract will do. If he performs well, he can get up to 30 million over the life of the contract. He most likely will not get all of that money, but it is better to have a contract with a big upside if they player performs than to lock them into a small contract and get disgruntled, or pay a big one and get injuries.

I don't like any holdout, but I like how this one was resolved.

I should point out that the injury that caused Grant to miss a year was non-football related. From this NYTimes article:

During the off-season in early 2006, someone bumped into Grant at the nightclub. When he wobbled and reached back to brace himself, his left hand went through Champagne glasses resting on the table. Grant cut an artery, a tendon and the ulnar nerve in his arm. Blood poured out of the wound, requiring emergency surgery. Grant plays down the ordeal now, but he acknowledged Wednesday that doctors were initially unsure if he would regain the use of his left hand.
Posted By: Chris Burkhardt

August 1, 2008

Where will Favre play?

I don't know how the Favre soap opera will turn out, all I can hope is that something is decided within the week. However, I am starting to warm up to the idea of Favre playing in Minnesota. I know that will make the Vikings pretty good, but it will also make for some very good football. (The Packers would lose the opener. Remember, Favre would probably win more regular season games than Rogers, but he will not win the Super Bowl.)

So, considering Favre will NOT be starting for the Packers, where would you like to see him play?

Posted By: Chris Burkhardt